2024 Tour de France: The best Pogacar against an uncertain Vingegaard. GETTY IMAGES

Next Saturday's Grand Boucle will see a duel between the Slovenian with two victories and the Dane with two. Pogacar will be in top form and aiming for a Giro-Tour double. Vingegaard, on the other hand, is recovering from a serious crash. For the first time, the Tour starts in Italy and doesn't end in Paris. Everything is new in the world's greatest race after 11 editions.

Tadej Pogacar doesn't need anyone to make things easy for him. Not at all. The Slovenian cyclist is the rival to beat at the moment. His huge potential makes him a favourite in all the races he takes part in. This year he went for the Giro-Tour double, something no one has done since Marco Pantani in 1998. He won the Giro d'Italia by almost ten minutes over the runner-up (Daniel Felipe Martínez) and now, in the Tour that starts on the 29th of June, it's hard to find a rival for him. In France, he's only had one rival in the last four years, Jonas Vingegaard, who beat him decisively in the last two years (2022 and 2023).

He brought Pogacar to his knees. However, as fate would have it, the Dane looks very unlikely to make it to this edition where he wants to challenge. A serious crash at the Tour of the Basque Country in April has been weighing on him ever since. He's confirmed that he'll be at the start, but in what condition?

A lot has changed this year. For the first time, the Tour will start in Italy. It will finish in Nice, just outside Paris, so as not to clash with the Olympic Games. It will end with a final time trial between Monaco and Nice on Sunday 21 July. Exciting.

Pogacar won the Giro d'Italia in May with authority and now wants the Tour. GETTY IMAGES
Pogacar won the Giro d'Italia in May with authority and now wants the Tour. GETTY IMAGES

All the stars will be at the start on 29 June: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic for the GC, as well as Mathieu van der Poel and Wout Van Aert, who are going for everything because they can. The spring was difficult for everyone, with Vingegaard, Roglic, Van Aert and Evenepoel all crashing.

There are doubts on paper. What level can Vingegaard reach? What level can Remco Evenepoel reach in the Tour de France? After one bad day last year, he was out of the race. Can he cope with the high mountains? There is also a chance for Primoz Roglic, who lost out to Pogacar on the final day of the 2020 Tour. Only seven riders in the history of cycling have achieved the double that Pogacar is aiming for. All of them belong to an earlier era: Coppi, Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault, Roche, Induráin and Pantani.

Some say that the Giro d'Italia could cost him, but he won it so convincingly that it may even have made him stronger. In the Tour, after his two wins in 2020 and 2021, everything seemed to be going smoothly. However, then Vingegaard came along and proved to be superior in the mountains. In the mountains, Pogacar couldn't cope with the Dane's attacks and was left behind when no one was expecting it. In 2023, Vingegaard was also superior in the time trials. He didn't give him a chance.

Vingegaard was welcomed in his country as a hero after winning his second Tour in 2023. GETTY IMAGES
Vingegaard was welcomed in his country as a hero after winning his second Tour in 2023. GETTY IMAGES

This year, however, two things are different. Vingegaard arrives as an unknown. He has suffered multiple rib and collarbone fractures and a pneumothorax. He has recovered, but nobody knows to what extent. On the other hand, Pogacar has improved considerably in time trials, as he showed in the Giro d'Italia, where he even beat Philippo Ganna, a consummate specialist. There are two time trial days in this year's Tour.

In these two areas, Pogacar seems to have the edge. Another aspect where Pogacar also arrives improved is the team potential. Vingegaard's team, Visma-Lease a bike, which was so dominant last year that it won all three Grand Tours, has suffered several setbacks. The first was not an accident, but the loss of Roglic to Bora. The brilliant Slovenian rider will be an enemy, not an ally. Van Aert, the true domestique, capable of winning stages and helping the leaders, also suffered a crash and will arrive weakened. Meanwhile, Pogacar leads a 'dream team' in the UAE with Yates, Ayuso and Almeida, as well as Majka and versatile riders.

There are few things that don't suit Pogacar, but one of them is altitude. In Grand Tours where heat and altitude have taken their toll, he has struggled. In this Tour, they will climb the Col de Vars (2,109m) and the Bonnette, the highest point of the Tour (2,802m). Then they will reach Isola 2000. All this in one stage, the 19th, which is daunting just to think about. Other legendary passes of well over 2,000 metres will be crossed, such as the Galibier (2,642 m), which will be crossed on the fourth day due to its proximity to the start in Italy, and the Tourmalet (2,115 m) in the Pyrenees.

This year's Tour will be a testing ground for many riders. The 2019 winner, Colombian Egan Bernal of Ineos, will be accompanied by his Spanish teammate Carlos Rodríguez. Bernal suffered another serious crash but has recovered and is back with the best at the start of the season.

Get ready, cycling fans, because the race is about to start. Never before has a first day started with a 3,700 metre climb. Watch out for mistakes on the double climb to San Luca on Sunday, day two. The fourth day brings the imposing Galibier, followed by a time trial through the vineyards from Nuits-Saint-Georges to Gevrey-Chambertin. A promising stage in the Massif Central and the crossing of the Pyrenees are also on the agenda. Before the finish in the Alps and a final challenging time trial on Sunday 21 July, with a picture-postcard backdrop between Monaco and Nice.


In 2024, history repeats itself from 1989, with the Tour ending with an individual time trial. That year, LeMond won the Tour by 8 seconds over Fignon. GETTY IMAGES
In 2024, history repeats itself from 1989, with the Tour ending with an individual time trial. That year, LeMond won the Tour by 8 seconds over Fignon. GETTY IMAGES

Thirty-five years after the duel between Laurent Fignon and Greg LeMond on the Champs-Élysées, the organisers are dreaming of an equally thrilling result. The Frenchman wore the yellow jersey in 1989. He was 50 seconds ahead of the American. The Tour ended with the shortest time trial, 24 kilometres, on the home turf of the bespectacled cyclist. In front of his neighbours. 

This Tour had it all, from the first day to the last. On the first day, the favourite and last year's winner, Pedro Delgado, got lost while warming up for the prologue. He arrived at the ramp 2 minutes and 40 seconds late. And on the last day, when Fignon was enjoying his third Tour, LeMond invented the alien handlebars. With a fabulous average speed of 54.545 km/h, he condemned the Frenchman. He won by 8 seconds, the smallest difference between the winner and runner-up in a Tour. Since then, 35 years later, the Tour has never ended with a time trial. In 2024, it will.