"China has set its stall out to become the number one nation in sport and to top the table in its host event,"  Professor Simon Shibli told BBC Sport in a report broadcast on Radio 5 today.

 

"We are forecasting China will win 46 gold medals, which probably exceeds most other people's forecasts."

 

Shibli said conservative estimates indicated the Chinese Government had spent billions of pounds ensuring its Olympians are in the best possible shape when the Games start.

 

He said: "Value for money and costs per medal become of secondary importance to actually winning."

 

Remarkably, China only entered the Summer Olympic arena in 1984, winning 15 gold medals in the heavily-boycotted Games in Los Angeles.

 

At the 1988 Games in Seoul, it won just five golds, the same number as Britain, but since then its performances have improved dramatically.

 

It won 16 golds in both Barcelona 1992 and Atlanta 1996 to finish fourth overall, before moving up to third in Sydney with 28 and then second in Athens with 32.

 

Shibli said: "Its improvement from the Seoul Olympics in 1988 to second place and 32 gold medals in Athens is unprecedented.

 

"For most nations, it is a great achievement to hang on to what you already have.

 

"So for a nation to be continually improving, in the case of China to double its gold medals from 16 in Barcelona to 32 in Athens, is really quite unprecedented."

 

Shibli's research actually indicated China would win 39 gold medals in Beijing, but his team felt home support would secure the host nation a further seven.

 

He said: "It is a top-end estimate, but that is what the data is telling us.

 

"If China were to achieve 46 gold medals, then, in the current climate, that would be more than enough to top the table."

 

As for Britain, Shibli thinks Team GB could reach double figures again in Beijing thanks to National Lottery funding and the London 2012 factor.

 

He said: "All of the evidence suggests we have reasons to be positive.

 

"We've been investing since the changes in National Lottery funding regulations to support athletes and national governing bodies.

 

"The evidence we have indicates that in the run-up to being the host nation, the would-be host tends to do better than it has in previous editions

 

"Given that we won nine gold medals in Athens it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume we'd do something like 10 to 12 and easily get a place in the top 10."