Of said countries from Central Asia, Kazakhstan in particular will be hoping to avoid a repeat of Tokyo, in which the nation failed to win a single gold medal for the first time since competing under its own national banner in Atlanta in 1996. In Rio, it won three golds, five silvers and nine bronze medals, but could only manage eight bronze finishes in Tokyo – widely considered a dismal failure for the nation’s sport.

Uzbekistan, which won four gold, two silver and seven bronze in Rio, managed only three golds and two bronze in Tokyo. Tajikistan didn’t win a single medal in Tokyo. Only Kyrgystan (two silvers, one bronze) and Turkmenistan (one silver) managed to improve on their previous medal count.

However, early predictions for Paris provide little comfort for the competing nations. A breakdown for Sports Illustrated magazine suggests no golds for Kazakhstan and only six medals in total – a silver in wrestling, plus two bronzes in boxing, two in gymnastics and one in shooting. If those predictions hold up, Paris could turn out to be Kazakhstan’s worst Olympics performance ever.

Uzbekistan is slated to do much better with a predicted 12 medals in total including three golds in boxing. SI predicts no medals for Turkmenistan, and only a silver for Tajikistan. However, it does predict that Kyrgiszstan could win its first ever gold medals (for wrestlers Zholaman Sharshenbekov and Aisuluu Tynybekova) and a final haul of six podium finishes.

A pre-Games report from Nielsen, agrees that Uzbekistan will probably scoop 12 medals, including two golds, but is more optimistic about Kazakhstan’s chances, predicting a final medal tally of 10 including two golds, three silver and five bronze. That would be better than Tokyo but still well short of the 17 medals (including three golds) that the country managed in Rio eight years ago. It would also mark the first time that Kazakhstan has performed worse that Uzbekistan, it’s much larger neighbour, in terms of medal wins.

Traditionally, despite its population size, Kazakhstan has always finished comfortably within the top 30 of competing nations on the medals table, until Tokyo when it limped in at number 83. That disaster prompted much soul-searching in the country to identify what went so badly wrong.

An analysis of those results by the Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting (CABAR) suggested that Covid-interrupted training may have played a part, but also pointed to a concentration by Kazakhstan on minority sports such as weightlifting and martial arts at the expense of more mainstream sports such as swimming and athletics even though Kazakhstan has previously had considerable success on the world stage in these disciplines. It also suggested that Kazakhstan had relied too much on importing talent from bordering nations and further afield rather than developing homegrown athletes, and it had failed to invest enough money to grow the nation’s sporting prowess.

Others say that Kazakhstan will struggle to win medals, especially gold, due to a systemic failure to properly prepare athletes that began 8-10 years ago. In fact, over the past 10-12 years, the country hasn’t given enough support for priority sports, focusing its attention on non-Olympic sports which have received the lion’s share of sports funding. There is also concern that coach training doesn’t yet meet modern requirements and that current training methods in sports schools aren’t advanced enough to deliver success at an international level.

And investment, especially government investment, is going to be key if countries such as Kazakhstan have any chance of reclaiming past glories, says Gianni Merlo, president of the International Sports Press Association.

‘The main ingredients to Olympic success are a proper long-term strategy and the investment to see it through,’ he says. ‘Large countries such as China and the US have a much bigger pool of talent to choose from, but they invest a lot of money in their athletes. Smaller countries such as Kazakhstan need to be equally committed.’

One example many point to is Great Britain. It had a disastrous Olympics back in Atlanta in 1996, winning only a single gold medal (and finishing behind Kazakhstan in the final medals table). The following year it established UK Sport, a public body for elite sports that distributes funds raised by the National Lottery. Investment ballooned and four years later, the country won 28 medals in Sydney including 11 gold. This year, Great Britain is expected to finish third in the medal table with 17 gold medals and total haul of 64. 

“It isn’t enough just to have talented competitors,” says Gianni Merlo. “They need to be supported throughout. That means investing in proper coaching, top class facilities, establishing centres of excellence, and also investing in sports science and centres of study. Success is a long-term project. And it needs money.”

Observers point out that current Kazakhstani sports managers are well aware of these issues and the need to address them. They also say that following the most recent Asian Games, steps have been taken to begin restructuring the sporting system – although admit this has probably come too late to deliver good results in Paris.

Of course, not all predictions come true and the central Asian countries may outperform expectations. But if they don’t then expect more soul searching, particularly in Kazakhstan which was once traditionally the most successful of the five, and despite restructuring efforts of its sports programmes following the Asian Games will be unlikely to see that bear fruit in Paris, looking set to lose its crown over the coming weeks.